Problems Met With Foreign Investors In Uzbekistan: It’s Just Clumsy Regulation

The FT’s FDI Magazine recently published an article titled “Clouds linger over Uzbekistan’s investment landscape”. The article contains analysis for adverse incidents occured with few foreign investors in Uzbekistan – like Oxus Gold, Shindong Enercom’s golf club, or Steinert’s bakery.

FDI Magazine asked Mr. Ignatov for his opinion on the matter.

“Uzbekistan Government – as well as the Governments in all other FSU states – look at foreign investments as at the tool for solving these or those nationwide tasks, from banking liquidity support to development of the particular regions”, Mr. Ignatov said. “Being the novice players in the FDI market, the FSU Governments still sometimes do not want to accept the idea that foreign investors usually go to the markets and industries with the high profits – while a list of such industries rarely coincides a list of the industries where the Governments want to see the investments.  Thus gold-mining today is an industry that doesn’t require large FDI anywhere – the national gold operators have enough financial strength (provided with the highest gold prices) to finance most of the local gold projects. The same is with other mining segments – high commodity prices make it possible to finance local projects with national money, not involving FDI”.

“At the same time large projects in less profitable industries with high initial investments – such as powertrain plant or gas chemical plant – are among the priorities for the Uzbekistan Government”, he continued. “Of course high prices for oil and gas make it possible for Uzbekneftegaz to finance any gas chemical plant project with own money – but in this case the country needs modern technologies, not only money.” 

So the last “tensions” with foreign investors in Uzbekistan mining may be perceived as the “clumsy” attempt with the Government to redirect FDI to the less profitable industries that have higher importance from the officials’ perspectives.

Another important factor is if any national government stands behind particular FDI project. So the Central Asian authorities will never “disturb” the Chinese investors – as everybody in the area knows that even if the project is done with a private Chinese firm, the CPC always stands behind the deal; and no one of the local Governments wants to have tensions with the Beijing – the  forces are too incomparable. That’s why it’s so important that the US Secretary of State visits the GM’s new facility or South Korean President signs the gas-chemical plant project. While AIM-listed companies making deals in the Central Asia are just one of the many private firms risking their own capital.

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Go West: Ignatov Expands Practices in Western Europe

In May-August 2011 Ignatov & Company Group expanded its practices in Western European markets. Currently we are capable to do market research in various industries and segments in all Western European countries – from the EU locomotives, such as Germany or France, to the GDP-per-capita global leaders like Monaco and Liechtenstein.

Currently Ignatov & Co provides the following services in the area:

  • Market Research
  • Company Intelligence
  • Personal Intelligence
  • Benchmarking
  • Business Intelligence
  • News & Monitoring
  • Foresight

 

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New Venue For Emerging Markets: Ignatov Transfers Corporate Blog to a Separate Domain

Ignatov & Company Group transferred its Emerging Markets Venue blog to a new domain – www.emergingmarketsvenue.com

In addition to better brand recognition – a new domain directly utilizes blog’s name – we also want to bring more comfort to our readers. Now blog visitors may enjoy reading anytime, even when we do maintenance in our corporate site.

You do not need to re-register with our blog or do any similar actions, but we kindly ask our readers:

- To change a link to our blog in Favorites

- To add emergingmarktsvenue.com domain in your mail and anti-spam software whitelists – to be able to receive our newsletters

- To change the link for RSS Feed

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Watch, Listen and Buy: Indoor TV and POS Radio In Central & Eastern Europe

Indoor TV and POS Radio in CEEIndoor TV is presented mainly in large cities:

  • In large supermarkets
  • In large drugstore chain
  • In boutiques trading with expensive goods (fashion, food, luxury goods)

Since 2006-2007 there is a transition from analogue devices to digital solutions (as a part of Digital Signage concept).

Indoor TV has the strongest direct impact (as the ads platform) when working in “food corners” of the supermarkets – while eating people have enough time to see the ads (in combination with the habit to combine meals and TV watching it leads to situation when up to 75-80% of the “food corner” visitors look Indoor TV not less than 1 minute).

Indoor TV in expensive shops is more for brand management rather than for direct ads; moreover – it plays not only directly (showing specific brands to the visitors) but also indirectly (the presence of Indor TV in luxury boutique becomes some kind of commonplace for this category of shops – i.e. you can’t be “cool” shop without having that Digital Signages inside).

Also Instore TV is well-perceived in drugstores – especially for promotion of vitamins, food supplements, OTC drugs with large number of generics (as usually it’s hard for a customer to make distinction between numerous names – and thus Instore TV dirdectly plays at the moment when the customer sees the ad).

Currently Instore TV is more or less regularily presented in Russia, Poland and Czech; in other CEE/CIS countries it’s limited with few largest supermarkets, boutiques and drugstores in the capital cities.

POS Radio is also presented mainly in large cities – in large supermarkets (usually in those without Instore TV). It’s seemed POS Radio is a less-developed ads tool in the target countries (due to a fact large players prefer Instore TV, while small palyers do not want to pay for any electronic ads and limit their indoor ads with printed posters).

Good time for implementing POS Radio was at the 1990s – after the Soviet Bloc crush: many of the large retail stores used radio for announcements at the Communist time; most of such annoucements referred to non-trade activities (lost people, shop-close warnings, etc.) but also some share of trade ads was presented; thus people in Rssia, Ukraine, Poland, etc. had a “habit” – to listen for radio announcements inside large shops; if they used POS Radio that time (with centralized ads transmitted by wire or wireless, etc.) – it would become the powerful tool. But due to the crisis the electronic ads were not the priority that time (1990s) and in 10-15 years people “forgot” about the Communist-time radio in shops – and Instore TV came in the 2000s.

Now POS Radio is presented in some stores – but it works mainly for older age customers (who might recognize that old pattern described above); younger people usually do not listen for POS Radio – they are either listen for music in their portable MP3 players or talk with the fellows, being in the shops.

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TV & Radio Win The Battle: Media Landscape in Slovakia

Media Landscape in SlovakiaTV and radio are the main media in the country – in terms of penetration and coverage:

  • From total 1,952 thousand households in Slovakia – 99.3% have TV sets; the penetration of digital TV sets is 31.7%.
  • 73% of the population listen to radio broadcasts on a regular basis (“listened yesterday”) and 95% at occasionally (“listened last week”).
  • However, only 52% of adults read the daily press and even fewer (48%) read weeklies on a regular basis. 26% of the Slovaks do not read any newspapers.
  • In 2010 60% of the population used internet, most of them at home.

Radio and television historically have been Slovaks’ primary source of information . People prefer to watch television, but significantly regard radio as being more trustworthy. Now approximately 78% of Slovaks trust radio and 71% – to television. The printed media is trusted with 55%. 53% of Slovaks trust Internet.

Currently there are 36 TV stations in Slovakia; from them 4 nationwide TV stations are the major ones (with 65% market share in terms of number of viewers), while other are presented with regional, local (municipal) anc corporate stations.

Due to a fact that 20% of the Sovakian population refer to minorities (Hungarians, Roma, Czechs, Moravians, etc.) it’s not strange that TV channels in their national languages are popular enough: Czech television stations attract around 7% of all viewers, and Hungarian language television stations attract about 4% of viewers.

The public television station Slovak Television (STV) has three channels: Jednotka, Dvojka and Trojka. Jednotka covers 98% of Slovakia and 97% of the population. Dvojka covers 91% of the territory and 90% of the population. Trojka broadcasts digitally and is thus accessible to viewers who use either cable or satellite broadcast. Markiza – the largest of the private channels, covers 88% of the country and 93% of population, and is also available digitally via satellite.

There are about 30 radio broadcast channels, in addition to 9 stations of public service radio, Slovenský rozhlas.

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Moscow Calling: Telecom Industry In Russia

Moscow Calling: Telecom Industry in RussiaWith this post about telecom business we continue a series of publications with analysis for Russia’s major industries – started with “Hard Times for Sputnik Makers: Machinery Manufacturing in Russia” at November 2010. It’s not a “quantitative research” with market size, growth or competition – but a “qualitative analysis” of business environment and challenges existing in each industry as well as description of the major strategies implemented with the Russian players to develop their business. Now we want to analyze Russia’s communications.

Business environment in telecom is characterized with the following features in Russia:

1. In fixed telecom

  • State ownership over telecom national holding
  • Relatively low phone penetration; high demand for fixed telecom services at low solvency of individual users
  • Low level of digitalization in fixed telecom
  • Low competition in fixed telecom due to industry’s monopolization with inter-regional holdings
  • Cross-financing of unprofitable local telecom with profitable inter-regional and international telecom; cross-financing of insolvent individual end-users with higher tariffs for corporate customers
  • High level of state regulation, including tariff policy
  • There are numerous categories of users who may not be disconnected even at high debts (state bodies, etc.); most of the debts in fixed telecom refer to such “protected” customers
  • Old telecom lines can’t provide broadband channels for Internet-based services

2. In mobile telecom

  • Oligopoly of 3 nationwide operators
  • Each of 3 operators is owned with this or that large business group
  • Mobile telecom forces out fixed telecom in corporate segment

To survive in hard business environment and to develop their business the Russian telecom operators implement various strategies, but few of them are “common places” for almost all players:

1. In fixed telecom

  • Large nationwide corporations establish own telecom operators
  • Large corporate telecom operators make own nationwide optic-fiber grids
  • Private public operators invest mainly to new-generation digitalized infrastructure based on fiber-optic lines
  • Rostelecom implements a project of trans-Russian digital telecom grid
  • Digitalization of the local lines; providing of ATM, SDH, xDSL-access, Internet-access, web-hosting, VPN-based corporate networks, e-business services
  • Convergence of telecom services, development of VoIP

2. In mobile telecom

  • “Mobile Big Three” operators continue M&A activity towards small/mid regional players in Russia, CIS, Asia
  • Mobile solutions are being used actively for replacement of fixed solution in solvent segments (office centers, solvent rural areas, etc.)
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The Long Rope: Competition in Russia’s Steel Wire Rope Market

Domestic players dominate in Russia’s steel wire rope market: Severstal-Metiz, Mechel and MMK-Metiz supply almost all ropes in “mainstream” segment, while import is presented mainly in high-end niche of specialized ropes.

It may look strange – but the competition among these three domestic suppliers is not hard. “Soviet legacy” is the key to this fact – all of the steel wire rope plants in Russia were launched at the Soviet time, and continue to work now. Thus the market “inertia” plays the role – i.e. traditional buyers (who bought since the USSR period) mainly continue to buy from the same sources.

The “competition” between the domestic plants is not a “classic” competition (when different suppliers try to sell to the same clients). These plants had some “fixed” sale areas/industries (specialization) defined long time ago with the Soviet Government (i.e. MMK supplied to oil company A and coalminers in Kuzbass, Mechel supplied to oil company B and miners in Far East, etc.); such situations exists (more or less unchanged) until nowadays.

Of course the plants compete for the large nationwide contracts for let’s say Gazprom or Lukoil, but at the same time Western Siberian divisions continue to receive ropes mainly from MMK and Beloretsk Plant (Mechel), while O&G divisions in North Russia are still actively supplied with Cherepovets Plant (Severstal).

Summarizing this – it’s possible to speak about “success factors” only for “competitive segment”, i.e. nationwide tenders with large O&G or mining operators, while most sales are “traditional” since the USSR time.

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Oriental Breakthrough: Ignatov Starts Services in South and Southeast Asia

Ignatov & CO started to provide services in South and Southeast AsiaIgnatov & Company Group began to provide market research and consulting services in South Asia and Southeast Asia on a regular basis; we did successful projects in these markets in 2006-2010 but they were sporadic until now.

In February-April 2011 Ignatov launched extended local practices in the region’s key markets such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines and others.

After inclusion of the Asian-Pacific markets into our regional scope Ignatov became a service provider with “global coverage” – in a part of “emerging world”. Currently we do projects in four out of five BRICS countries (all except China); we work in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa – providing our clients a holistic and comprehensive view towards the global emerging market. In cooperation with our entrusted partners – who do the job in China – Ignatov is capable to realize global research and consulting projects.

Currently Ignatov & Co provides the following services in the area:

  • Market Research
  • Company Intelligence
  • Personal Intelligence
  • Benchmarking
  • Business Intelligence
  • News & Monitoring
  • Foresight

“I’m happy we started to work in the Asian markets – as the region demonstrates the fastest economic growth, shifting the world’s power from the Atlantic theatre to the APAC”, said Mr. Ignatov, the company’s president. “Our team believes in continuous success in doing market research and consulting job there. We hired competent professionals who fit our corporate requirements – in particular, the large experience in business, industry or governmental agencies; most of these talented people participated in our regional projects in the past – and we know well their excellent background. I’m happy we work in such remarkable country as India, that has one of the best economic perspectives among the developing countries; “New Asian Tigers”, such as Vietnam and others, will add dynamics in our business too.”

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Who Are Those Guys: Personality Intelligence At Your Desktop

Syndicated Personality ReportsRecently the Forbes magazine has published its regular annual World’s Billionaires List per 2011. Ignatov & Company Group is glad to announce our team assisted the Forbes in making the list this year – the same like we did for the magazine in 2005-2010.

Ignatov & Co provided background information for several businesspersons in CEE, both those included in a list and those whose wealth was finally found to be less than $1 bln; we also assisted in non-public assets evaluation for these persons.

Our company continuously utilizes its excellent expertise in personality intelligence – in such projects like that one done recently for the Forbes, as well as in making out-of-shelf Personality Reports, accessible via our online store.

Few days ago we’ve updated our online shop with few hundreds syndicated Personality Reports; most of the added reports refer to the residents of the emerging markets we recently included in our scope – such as Lain America, Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia.

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Split And Merge: Energy Business In Russia

Hard Times for Sputnik Makers: Machinery Manufacturing in RussiaWith this post about energy business we continue a series of publications with analysis for Russia’s major industries – started with “Hard Times for Sputnik Makers: Machinery Manufacturing in Russia” at November 2010. It’s not a “quantitative research” with market size, growth or competition – but a “qualitative analysis” of business environment and challenges existing in each industry as well as description of the major strategies implemented with the Russian players to develop their business. Now we want to analyze Russia’s energy business.

Business environment in energy is characterized with the following features in Russia:

  • The current energy strategy of Russia is partially based on a decision adopted at the 1970s. The fuel balance that now exists in Russia – natural gas supplies up to 70 percent of fuel total consumption and almost 45 percent of energy production – is a result of so called “gas pause” strategy. Forty years ago – when the giant deposits of Western Siberia started to produce gas – they decided that the country would benefit the cheap gas and most of the power plants were modernized for gas utilization. This is a well-known fact that explains why natural gas is the key fuel now in Russia. But another – less-known – decision was also adopted that time: to use the gas benefits period for developing of new methods of increase of coal burning efficiency, and to return to coal as the key fuel after the “gas pause”. They planned to do this by the mid 1990s. Such strategy assumed that the era of cheap gas would come by the end later or sooner, as well as that Russia possessed coal deposits with much larger reserves than natural gas deposits (in fuel equivalent). The first part of the strategy – transfer of the country’s energy to gas consumption – was realized successfully and Russia benefits cheap gas for domestic use for more than thirty years. But the second part – development of coal-burning technologies and return to coal consumption in energy – has been delayed for more than 15 years. Currently it’s clear that the period of gas low domestic prices will end in 3-5 years; moreover there is possibility that Russia may meet a lack of gas for internal consumption.
  • Most of the HPP are located in the distant regions of Siberia and Far East – that increases transportation cost as well as investment cost for infrastructure maintenance
  • Capacity utilization decreased a lot in the beginning of the 1990s; now they increase production but meet a problem of out-of-date capacities and technologies
  • They meet a problem with old-age staff while young generation prefer to work in other industries
  • As far as technological indicators are concerned (i.e. fuel rate, average efficiency of equipment, operating power of stations etc.) Russian power companies are falling behind their analogues in developed countries
  • There are no stimuli to increase efficiency, encourage energy saving, and plan power generation and consumption more rationally
  • In separate regions regular power interruptions took place. The country faced a global energy crisis, and probability of major power failures increased
  • No pay discipline, and non-payments are widespread
  • Power sector enterprises didn’t provide financial and information transparency
  • Access to the market was closed for new independent market players
  • The energy intensity of Russia’s economy is gradually declining. Specific electricity consumption per RUB1,000 of GDP (in comparable prices) is constantly declining
  • The electricity consumption pattern by region is quite diverse. The three largest integrated energy systems— Urals IES, Centre IES, and Siberia IES—accounted for over 68 percent of Russia’s total electricity consumption
  • Prices for fuel grow faster than for energy; energy price growth is limited with the state authorities
  • Low financing of R&D activity with state and corporate players
  • Energy business requires high investments, so ROI is lower than in many other businesses

Energy players meet many challenges – from which the following are the major ones:

  • Ensure compliance with the established reliability parameters for the functioning of the Unified Energy System of Russia and electricity quality
  • Manage the operational modes of the energy facilities pursuant to the Principal Rules for the operation of the wholesale and retail markets
  • Develop optimal daily schedules for the operation of power plants and grids of the UES of Russia
  • Forecasting consumption of electricity and capacity, and development of capacity and electric power balances
  • Determination of the transfer capability of the UES power grid
  • Optimising the use of energy resources and carrying out overhaul of generation equipment
  • Replacement of obsolete equipment with modern equipment
  • Creation of controlled transmission lines
  • Creation of an automated dispatching system for grid control centres
  • Creation of digital systems for data transmission
  • Calculation, analysis and regulation process of the operational modes
  • Development of technologies to support market trading
  • Increasing the reliability of the information technology and telecommunication system
  • Improvement of the infrastructure supporting the dispatch administration

To survive in such hard business environment and to develop their business the Russian energy players implement various strategies, but few of them are “common places” for almost all players:

  • Energy industry reform: split of UESR into regional companies; transmission grid and dispatching stay in the state property; regional energy companies are being privatized with large holdings (either fuel suppliers or energy consumers); split of regional companies by businesses; creation of wholesale generation companies (WGCs); creation of territorial generation companies (TGCs); consolidation of the Unified National Electricity Grid (UNEG) facilities; consolidation of the dispatching system; restructuring of the energy retailing operations; restructuring of the repair & maintenance and services businesses
  • Business concentration – a) O&G and coalmining companies purchase thermal energy assets (as they are consumers for their oil, gas and coal); b) aluminum holdings purchase hydropower assets to supply Alu smelters with cheaper energy
  • Energy companies create own transportation divisions (railroad and truck) for fuel transportation cost decrease
  • Nuclear energy is concentrated within the single state-owned holding
  • Design and development of new generation nuclear reactors
  • Broad adoption of the combined-cycle technology; the use of cogeneration will increase their efficiency from 30-35 percent to 50-60 percent
  • Construction of coal-fired thermal power plants using the traditional steam technology and power units using ultra supercritical live steam conditions, including circular fluidized-bed (CFB) boilers
  • The construction of tidal power plants (TiPPs) with next-generation orthogonal (cross-stream) turbines is one of the priority areas for development in the hydropower sector
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The Rich Also Cry: Challenges For Russian Commodity Industries

The Rich Also Cry: Challenges For Russian Commodity IndustriesWith this post about commodity business we continue a series of publications with analysis for Russia’s major industries – started with “Hard Times for Sputnik Makers: Machinery Manufacturing in Russia” at November 2010. It’s not a “quantitative research” with market size, growth or competition – but a “qualitative analysis” of business environment and challenges existing in each industry as well as description of the major strategies implemented with the Russian players to develop their business. Now we want to analyze Russia’s major export business, presented with commodities – oil, gas, coal, ore and other mining products.

Business environment in commodities is characterized with the following features in Russia:

  • Long business cycle: geology survey – machinery and equipment installation – overburden removal or drilling – extraction – transportation – warehousing. A cycle from a deposit discovery to first sell of commodity from that deposit may take 3-15 years.
  • Territorial location of the wells, mines, etc.: а) few regional clusters for the same commodity; b) regional distribution of mines, etc. by country’s territory – even within one company; c) long distance of most mines and wells from seaports and state borders.
  • New deposits are located in distant regions of Siberia, Far East and Arctic with weak or absent infrastructure.
  • Commodity business strongly depends on pipelines and railroads; it has high transportation expenses in cost structure; state authorities may indirectly influence commodity business via pipeline and railroad state-owned monopolies.
  • Investment attractiveness and capitalization of commodity companies directly depends on their reserves. So companies have to increase constantly their reserves – with investing large sums into this process; at the same time many deposits are empty or weak, etc.
  • Industry meets high geological risks – from low probability of high-productive deposit discovery to low output in existing deposits
  • Commodity business requires high investments, so ROI is lower than in many other businesses
  • There are different possibilities for creating added value in various stages of commodity business; added value grows from commodity extraction to end-user products manufacturing; but investment requirements and competition also grow the same direction – i.e. it’s more difficult to do business in those stages that return higher added value
  • There is no commodity domestic market in Russia; all deliveries are being done by direct contracts with customers or via intermediates. There are no commodity exchanges in Russia
  • The industry strongly depends on foreign trade and global markets; so oil pricing is completely defined with such external players and factors as OPEC, etc.; the same is for metal pricing – where LME and similar ones play the key role
  • Russian commodity companies depend on situation in a limited number of international markets – EU and China – that are key importers for Russia’s commodities
  • Russian commodity companies meet global competition not only in global markets but also in CIS & domestic markets
  • There is a problem of reducing of geology survey volumes – as it is necessary to do the job in hard conditions of Arctic, Far East and Eastern Siberia

Commodity players meet many challenges – from which the following are the major ones:

  • Development of own databases for geology information, reserves, etc.
  • Calculation of economic efficiency of purchasing licenses for the specific deposit
  • Optimization of transportation model for separate deposits and for entire company
  • Selection of the optimal geology survey methods; selection of “outsourcing” or “DIY” model for geology survey
  • Calculation of influence of investments into geology survey over the total economical efficiency of the company
  • Optimization of production schedule – counting climatic and geographical conditions
  • Problems with work in permafrost areas
  • Production problems – lack of labor force or materials, delays in materials and equipment delivery, mistakes in design, weak coordination, incorrect supply strategy, staff with insufficient qualification, etc.
  • Necessity to account existing wells, mines, etc. by few parameters; dynamical analysis of efficiency for each well, mines, etc., deposits, company’s divisions, entire company
  • Problems of work in exhausted wells, mines, deposits, etc.
  • Problems in relations with transport operators, railroad agents, etc.
  • Accounting of commodity production volume (accuracy and continuity of measurement, control with state authorities, etc.)
  • Use of few delivery and pricing models (export – long-term contracts + exchange price; domestic deliveries – no price indicators, some prices are limited with state authorities; deliveries to affiliated processing facilities, etc.)

To survive in such hard business environment and to develop their business the Russian commodity players implement various strategies, but few of them are “common places” for almost all players:

  • Business concentration – 3-4 O&G operators and 12-15 large mining and metal-and-mining business groups
  • Increase of share of products with high added value; strategy of processing of commodities into final products in Russia (with export of final products) instead of commodity export
  • Cost reducing strategies – transportation cost optimization, use of modern machinery and technologies, commodity stock optimization, reducing of non-production expenses, etc.
  • Optimization of various business-segments – by optimal ratio “added value – investments – competitiveness”
  • Development of corporate risk management systems
  • Development of own processing capacities directly in the places of commodity extraction (for transportation cost optimization)
  • Use of optimal transport models, development of own transportation divisions including railroad operators.
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108 Minutes That Shook The World: 50 Years of Yuri Gagarin’s Spaceflight

Yuri Gagarin - the first man in SpaceAt April 12, 1961 a Russian pilot with nobiliary surname and charming smile did what can be called the most important event of the last Millenium – he opened a space doorway for a humankind. Yuri Gagarin spent 108 minutes in the outer space – starting an endless way of the Man towards  the Universe.

Ignatov’s international team consists of the  “Space-addicted” people; few of us directly participated the Soviet space program; many of the younger members of the  team are “space nerds” – with hobbies in astrophysics and cosmic machinery.

Gagarin's Flight in TimesWe collectively consider that Russia did two great things per last century – defeated the Nazi in 1945 and 16 years later launched Vostok-1, the first manned spacecraft. “I think there are two main holidays in Russia nowadays, if not to speak about the religious dates; it’s the V-Day at May 9 and the First Spaceflight Day at April 12″, said Mr. Alexander Ignatov, the company’s president.  “At least for me these particular days have great significance and make me proud I’m Russian”.

Our Indian team says that the duration of Gagarin’s flight in minutes coincides the Hindu sacral number, that is 108 – and they think it’s a symbol. But even without such allegories the significance of that flight can’t be underestimated. And the future generations will always remember the name of Yuri Gagarin, the First Man in Space.

Professionals memorize the First Man in Space

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Upgrading W3 Presence: Ignatov Launches New Corporate Site

Ignatov & Company Group - Corporate WebsiteIgnatov & Company Group, a leading provider of market research and consulting services with emphasis in emerging economies, announced the launch of a brand new version of corporate website, www.ignatov.biz

The new website is a single-entry source where the customers can learn more about the services and products provided with the company. The site is designed to be a source of the valuable up-to-date information about the emerging markets.

Site visitors can find many new features in the site – such as market insights and trends, case studies for our consulting job, links for online ordering or purchase in the Information Store.

“The previous version of the site was designed in 1999-2000, when we just started our work with the global customers; thus it was more about market research and company intelligence – the services we began our business with – while newer activities like business and engineering consulting were less presented in the site’s pages”, said Mr. Alexander Ignatov, the company’s President. “The new site offers information about all aspects of our business – including extended description for all services and products we provide. We tried to make our new site within the Web 3.0 paradigm – that is the creation of professional content with Web 2.0 tools and techniques.”

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No Time To Lose: Expanded Access Programs (EAP) in Russia

No Time To Lose: Expanded Access Programs (EAP) in RussiaIn Russia the “named patient supply” is used; accordingly the new law “On drug circulation” (articles 47-49) the state-run hospital may adopt a decision about use of the particular drug (not registered in Russia) for a single-patient; then they need to receive the authorization with the Federal Service on Control in Healthcare (Roszdravnadzor) – and after that the drug may be imported officially.

Only state-run hospitals/clinics subordinated to the federal government (so-called “federal healthcare entities”) may adopt decisions for the named patient supply; moreover – not each of the federal hospitals, but only those that are counted to be “specialized” in treatment of a specific group of diseases (i.e. the general-practice federal clinics can’t do this).

Decision for the named patient supply has to be adopted with the consultation board (concilium) of the specialized federal healthcare entity; the decision has to indicate the volume of the drug to be imported.

After that the hospital transfers application to Roszdravnadzor; application documents contain: application form; written agreement of the patient (or his representatives) with the use of the drugs non-registered in Russia; copy of the consultation board’s decision; copy of the quality certificate for the drug (it may be the certificate issued with the drug producer).

Roszdravnadzor has to issue the permission for the named patient supply in 5 working days (it may also decline the application – if any of the required documents has not been provided).

After the federal clinic has a permission with Roszdravnadzor it may buy the drug from the foreign producer (or patient may buy the drug abroad and import it to Russia).

Since 2010 there is no import duty tax for the drugs imported at the named patient supply – however still need to pay 10% VAT at import. The charity funds and the federal clinics ask the government to cancel VAT at all for the named patient supply, but the Finance Ministry protects the tax – and it’s almost zero probability it will be cancelled. The rate for VAT used at the named patient supply is another issue; the case is that the Russian laws apply 10% (reduced) rate only to the “drugs registered in Russia” while drugs imported at the named patient supply are not formally “registered”; thus in many cases the tax office required 18% (regular) VAT rate to be used at named patient supply, not 10% as for the registered drugs; however sometimes they could pay 10%; this issue may be regulated by direct inclusion of the named patient supply in 10% rate.

Few sources of financing are permitted for the named patient supply:

  • The specialized federal healthcare entity may buy the drug with own funds (i.e. funds granted with the federal government); it’s a rare thing – because the managers in the state hospitals are usually afraid of the claims in “corruption” when using governmental funds – and thus they prefer to spend money only for “well-known” solutions; however it’s possible – and usually the state controlling agencies are more or less loyal when find this or that federal clinic has spent state money for let’s say cancer drugs
  • Patient may finance the drug with own money; in such case the importation of drug is also done with the patient’s relatives or friends
  • Charity funds; in such case the importation of drug is usually done with the employees of the charity organizations

The current rules for the named patient supply are valid since Sept 1, 2010; prior to this date the permission process for the named patient supply was much longer (from 30 days) and harder – so only few federal clinics agreed to initiate the processes. However despite the easier procedure since Sept 1, 2010 there were some challenges – for instance they cancelled import duty tax for the named patient supply only since Nov 2010; the process of interaction between the Healthcare Ministry and Federal Custom Service (at named patient supply) was adopted with the government only at Feb 2011; so until Feb 2011 the rules are almost not worked – even in Dec 2010 there were incidents at import of drugs with the charity funds. So in a word – the “named patient supply” schema (in its current – easy – edition) works in Russia only last month, and the doctors still have no any strong experience in its implementation.

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Media Front: Our Selected Publications & Interviews

Media Front: Our Selected Publications & InterviewsIgnatov & Company actively publishes articles in professional media (magazines, newspapers, etc.) as well as our staff is being interviewed with such media.

We’d like to present your attention few selected publications and interviews – and maybe you’ll want to read them in the respective media.

Journal of Competitve Intelligence and Management (JCIM Magazine) published the article titled “Competitive Intelligence in Russia” and written with Mr. Alexander Ignatov. The article provides unique insights and a comprehensive treatment of competitive intelligence in Russia. The historical development of Russian CI is traced back to the military and government intelligence tradition left behind by the Soviet legacy. This is followed by a discussion of modern trends that are replacing the Soviet legacy with a professional, advanced, high-tech and ethical CI community. Next, an analysis of the structure of Russian CI is presented with special emphasis on structural organization, services specialization, branch distribution and territorial distribution. Despite the fact it was written and published in 2004 the article is still timely and explains how many things are done in Russian company intelligence business. The article may be downloaded here.

In “Friends Reunited?” Metal Bulletin Magazine (Issue June 2005) interviewed Mr. Ignatov, asking him about Russian steelmakers’ plans towards the Ukrainian assets. The article may be downloaded here.

In “Fighting fit” Metal Bulletin Magazine (Issue May 2006) interviewed Mr. Ignatov, asking him about the Russian steel-makers’ global positions, their financial abilities, level of self-supply with raw materials (coke and ore). The article may be downloaded here.

In March 2010 Issue the World Coal Magazine has published an article “The Bear Looks East” written with Mr. Alexander Ignatov, our founder and president; this article contains brief analysis for Russia’s coal market in 2009-2010, including a shift in Russia’s coal export from EU to APAC (Asia-Pacific), in particular in China.

In “Russian connections” Port Strategy Magazine (Issue February 2010) interviewed Mr. Ignatov, asking him about Russian seaports’ current strategy. Mr. Ignatov said that there was an imbalance between western and eastern coal handling, with the west suffering from overcapacity while the east was stretched even more by Asia’s needs and couldn’t guarantee sufficient loading to coal miners. He also discussed the logistics bottlenecks in Russian coal export “pipeline”.

In “Comparatively speaking” Port Strategy Magazine (Issue April 2010) interviewed Mr. Ignatov, asking him about use of the key performance indicators (KPIs) with the Russian seaports. The article may be read here.

World Coal magazine (Issue October 2010) published an article “A Battle Begins” written with Mr. Ignatov, the president of our company; he analyzes the coal market in Ukraine in this publication. It became Mr. Ignatov’s second article in the series of publications about the coal industry in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. In his research Mr. Ignatov presents a view over the future privatization of coalmining assets in Ukraine; it’s one of those “tasty” pieces of the Ukrainian economical pie that are interesting both to local and international players. Producing coal in a 70-80 mtpa range, Ukraine possesses total reserves in 117.5 bln tons. Three major players will definitely compete in coalmine privatization – SCM, ArcelorMittal, and the Russians – while China may also enter the game. Mr. Ignatov analyzes coal strategies with each of these “pretenders” – from SCM’s “I want it all” game targeting 100% self-supply with coking and steam coal, to ArcelorMittal’s CIS coal interests. The article contains a lot of insights about the coalmining in Ukraine – from why they produce more steam than coking coal now, to who of the steel-makers have succeeded in coking coal self-supply.

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Generics Heaven: GX Authorization in Brazil

Generics Heaven: GX Authorization in BrazilThe general approach in Brazil now (supported with legislation) is to give preferences to GX (no difference done domestically or imported) towards original drugs; based on that input the Brazilian authorities made it quite easy to register GX in the country.

Brazilian rules require to make bioequivalence study for GX drug – comparing it with any “reference drug”. Bioequivalence study may be done with one of the labs certified with ANVISA (Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária – Brazilian National Health Surveillance Agency).

In contrast to most of other developing countries (that allow only national bioequivalence study, i.e. done with local labs) Brazil allows to make bioequivalence study with few overseas labs, certified with ANVISA. It means that the bioequivalence study done in let’s say Indian lab (certified with ANVISA) will be accepted with ANVISA for registration of a GX drug in Brazil.

Thus it’s clear why the Indian GX producers are so active in Brazil – they have legal right to make bioequivalence study with Indian labs, moreover few Indian producers (such as Ranbaxy or Glenmark) have own labs certified with ANVISA (i.e. they do bioequivalence study in India with own force).

However, all this doesn’t mean that the Indian GX players are “automatically” entering the Brazilian pharmaceutical market (the largest in Latin America). Such companies may meet the patent litigations at their way to Latin America; for instance in 2010 Cipla met with situation when its supply to the Latin America through Europe was stopped in transit at European airports; the EU authorities referred to the fact Cipla violated EU intellectual property laws (that fact was indicated in Cipla’s 2009-2010 annual report available in their website); it’s seemed that to overcome it Cipla decided to utilize non-European transit ways – it established a Singapore 100% affiliate for export trade, and now is looking for alternative transit (North Africa was the most probable candidate – but after the recent events in Egypt, etc. it may be shifted).

Non-Indian GX producers (Canadian, Israeli, Central European, etc.) are more orienting the “intellectual property” issue. Practically it means they prefer to enter Brazilian (and other developing) markets after they entered any of the developed markets (like US, EU, etc.) – i.e. after they could somehow solve the patent issues; it’s easier to enter the Brazilian market first (taking into account the interest of the Brazilian government in GX drugs and easiness for GX registration in the country) – and this is what the Indian companies do now; but sometimes such early entry in Brazil may be perceived as “patent violation” with the original drug producers that may bring problems to the GX producers later, when they will try to enter the US or EU markets. The Indian players are ready to risk – while players like Teva are not; that’s why they first try to penetrate US/EU (if success it means they could did something with patent protection) and only then to go Brazilian and similar markets.

Note: Reference drug is a unique compound that has been approved by the FDA or any other developed market agency (EU, Japan, Canada), has patent protection and registration with ANVISA (done after trials in Brazil)

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Central & Eastern Europe’s Markets That Will Grow Fast In 2011

Last time it’s seemed the Central and Eastern Europe is the most dynamic part of the European economy – many things are fast changed there. Estonia enters eurozone, becoming the 17th country using this second largest reserve currency for daily needs. ETFs oriented Poland’s economy (such as Market Vectors Poland ETF) grew by 17% per last 6 months – demonstrating the stable economic growth in this Central European country; moreover in contrast to its neighbors Poland had a GDP positive growth even at the crisis 2008-2010 years.

We consider few countries of the Central and Eastern Europe will be attractive in terms of investments, localization and import in 2011:

  • Poland
    • Food & beverage
    • Pharmaceutical
    • Chemistry
    • Logistics
    • Cosmetics & toiletries
    • Construction material
  • Czech Republic
    • Automotive
    • Chemistr
  • Slovenia
    • White consumer goods
    • Pharmaceutical
  • Hungary
    • Car parts & components
    • Pharmaceutica
  • Estonia
    • Food & beverage
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Russian Markets That Will Grow Fast In 2011

Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR) declared Russia’s stock market did a record at week 4 of 2011 – global investors bought Russian securities per $724 mln that is even more than a pre-crisis highest level ($541 mln at May 2008). The country’s stock market is growing since the end of Sept 2010 – increased by 25% vs. 11-13% in the developed markets; since the beginning of year 2011 (that in Russia starts later than everywhere, due to the Orthodox Christmas at Jan 7) the stock market in Russia grew by 5%, while other BRIC markets lost and developed markets gained only 0.4-4%.

Such growth may be just the “synchronization” with the Street – but it also may be another indication for Russia’s economy restoration after the 2008-2010 crisis, especially if not to forget about other signs, like recent $5.8 bln acquisition of Wimm-Bill-Dann beverage group with Pepsi Co or unprecedented “Arctic agreement” between BP and Rosneft.

Which sectors and industries will grow fast in post-crisis Russia? We think most of pre-crisis fast-growers – such as food & beverage, gold mining or automotive – will be among the growth leaders in the next years, while still questions about construction and building materials, suffered a lot during the initial phase of the crisis; and newcomers may be expected in the “fast growth” market – such as chemistry and coalmining.

Here is a list of sectors and industries with the best perspectives in the Russian market in 2011 – in terms of domestic production (including localization), import and investments:

  • Food & beverage
  • Passenger cars
  • Car parts and components
  • Specialty chemicals
  • Mining
  • Communications
  • Pharmaceutical
  • Energy machinery & equipment
  • Rail freight cars
  • Freight containers
  • Logistics
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A Stable Patient: Key Trends in Russia’s Pharmaceutical Market

Last five years the Russian pharmaceutical market has been characterized with:

1. Stable demand volume

- In 2002-2010 demand was within a 4.1-4.5 bln packs/year range; this stability was a reflection of qualitative picture in demography and consumer patterns; in particular the shrinking population was compensated by growth of GDP/income per capita, etc.

2. Growing demand value due to price increases

- Both domestic and imported prices grew – but for different reasons; domestic prices grew because of the growth of manufacturing costs at the side of drug producers; imported prices grew because of the change of currency conversion rate

3. Stable supply structure

- In the 1990s the imported drugs dominated both in volume and value terms in Russian market, in 2000s the Russian drug producers could renew production and increase the volume

- In 2009 domestic suppliers held 65% in volume terms producing mainly cheap generic drugs, while imports provided the expensive innovative (including orphan) drugs; thus import dominates in value terms with 78% share in 2009

4. Stable segmentation

- The Russian pharmaceutical market consists of four segments: Commercial; FRP (Federal Reimbursement Program); Hospital Segment; and Dietary Supplements (BADs), where commercial dominates in volume and value terms

- Over the past year, there were no significant changes in the structure of the pharmaceutical market; commercial segment is the largest in the market – with 87% share in volume terms and 71% in value in 2009; its share was stable, except for a decrease in 2006 and growth to 74% in 2007 (that was determined with the reduction in small FRP financing in 2007 and the correspondent fall in FRP share); commercial segment demonstrated the most “stable” growth – while other segments were volatile in their dynamics

-  Domestic producers competed with imports in the commercial segment (mainly in generics) and in the hospital segment (price is an advantage)

- In FRP segment imported drugs dominated as the Government decided to buy only drugs for some rare or hard diseases (Russian plants do not produce these drugs now)

5. Active role of the Government in the market

- The Federal Government is an active player in the market – as a regulator and as the largest buyer (through FRP and hospital funding)

-  Recently the President of Russia declared that by 2020 the domestic producers must have 50% share in the market in value terms; the Government developed a Strategy for the Pharmaceutical Market until 2020 (known as Pharma-2020); now Pharma-2020 is authorized only with the Ministry of Industry and Trade (that is responsible for support of domestic manufacturers, including drug producers) but still not authorized with the Healthcare Ministry

- In 2008-2010 the Government significantly influenced the market rules including: limited prices in all levels (from plant to drugstore); provided 15% price preference to domestic plants at FRP/hospital tenders; added other controls

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Non-Abstract Market: Concrete in Kazakhstan

Currently domestic producers provide 95% of concrete in Kazakhstan, while importation counts for 5% of concrete consumption volume.

There are two categories of concrete domestic producers in Kazakhstan:

  • Concrete plants – that produce market concrete and (usually) concrete/ferroconcrete blocks
  • Constructors – that directly mix concrete in the building area (using stationary or mobile mixers)

Currently there are about 90 concrete plants in Kazakhstan and they provide up to 55% of concrete production in Kazakhstan; constructors directly produce 45% of concrete. From 55% of concrete produced with the plants almost 30% is being used for concrete/ferroconcrete blocks production while 25% are presented with market concrete delivered to constructors; from 45% of concrete produced with constructors 100% is being directly consumed with constructors themselves. Constructors that produce concrete mix with own force use it directly; no more than 1% of concrete produced with constructors is being re-distributed to other constructors; those constructors that have no own mixers prefer to purchase concrete from concrete plants not from other constructors.

All concrete/ferroconcrete blocks are being produced with concrete plants; constructors do not produce such blocks (they do only concrete for direct use). Currently 79 of 90 concrete plants in Kazakhstan produce not only concrete but also concrete/ferroconcrete blocks.

Southern Kazakhstan (including Almaty) produces 50% of concrete, Central Kazakhstan (including Astana and Karaganda) – 30%, Western Kazakhstan – 5%, Northern Kazakhstan – 10%, and Eastern Kazakhstan – 5%.

Three countries – Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan – provide 100% of concrete import to Kazakhstan. Russia supplies concrete from plants located in 15-20 km from Kazakh border (Orenburg, Omsk, Altai regions). Kyrgyzstan benefits the closeness of its concrete plants to Almaty area in Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan supplies mainly in the southern regions of Kazakhstan.

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